The Man Who Knew

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Sebastian Mallaby
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Penguin Press 2016-10-11 Hardcover 9781594204845

具體描述

Sebastian Mallaby is the Paul Volcker Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Washington Post columnist. He spent thirteen years on The Economist magazine, covering international finance in London and serving as the bureau chief in southern Africa, Japan, and Washington. He spent eight years on the editorial board of The Washington Post, focusing on globalization and political economy. His previous books are The World's Banker (2004), which was named as an Editor's Choice by The New York Times, and After Apartheid (1992), which was a New York Times Notable Book.

Sebastian Mallaby's magisterial biography of Alan Greenspan, the product of over five years of research based on untrammeled access to his subject and his closest professional and personal intimates, brings into vivid focus the mysterious point where the government and the economy meet. To understand Greenspan's story is to see the economic and political landscape of the last 30 years--and the presidency from Reagan to George W. Bush--in a whole new light. As the most influential economic statesman of his age, Greenspan spent a lifetime grappling with a momentous shift: the transformation of finance from the fixed and regulated system of the post-war era to the free-for-all of the past quarter century. The story of Greenspan is also the story of the making of modern finance, for good and for ill.

Greenspan's life is a quintessential American success story: raised by a single mother in the Jewish émigré community of Washington Heights, he was a math prodigy who found a niche as a stats-crunching consultant. A master at explaining the economic weather to captains of industry, he translated that skill into advising Richard Nixon in his 1968 campaign. This led to a perch on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and then to a dazzling array of business and government roles, from which the path to the Fed was relatively clear. A fire-breathing libertarian and disciple of Ayn Rand in his youth who once called the Fed's creation a historic mistake, Mallaby shows how Greenspan reinvented himself as a pragmatist once in power. In his analysis, and in his core mission of keeping inflation in check, he was a maestro indeed, and hailed as such. At his retirement in 2006, he was lauded as the age's necessary man, the veritable God in the machine, the global economy's avatar. His memoirs sold for record sums to publishers around the world.

But then came 2008. Mallaby's story lands with both feet on the great crash which did so much to damage Alan Greenspan's reputation. Mallaby argues that the conventional wisdom is off base: Greenspan wasn't a naïve ideologue who believed greater regulation was unnecessary. He had pressed for greater regulation of some key areas of finance over the years, and had gotten nowhere. To argue that he didn't know the risks in irrational markets is to miss the point. He knew more than almost anyone; the question is why he didn't act, and whether anyone else could or would have. A close reading of Greenspan's life provides fascinating answers to these questions, answers whose lessons we would do well to heed. Because perhaps Mallaby's greatest lesson is that economic statesmanship, like political statesmanship, is the art of the possible. The Man Who Knew is a searching reckoning with what exactly comprised the art, and the possible, in the career of Alan Greenspan.

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##這本書覆蓋的年代從歧視猶太人的那個年代開始到2008年金融海嘯,經濟數據的跟蹤統計、金本位、抗通脹、Thrifts的倒閉、次貸危機。。在很多這些近代金融史的關鍵節點上,格林斯潘即便不是決策者,卻至少也是密切參與者,所以這本書,讀起來也像是講經濟學理論,講金融係統運作,講曆史(比如水門事件等),講美國政治的一本書。書的最後,作者反思2008-09金融危機的時候說,也許我們應該在經濟很好的時候,敢於提高利率--犧牲一點點經濟增長而已--就可以防止泡沫的産生。而似乎10年後我們又做瞭同樣的事,前兩年中,美聯儲雖然試圖升利率可最後還是頂不住犧牲一點經濟的壓力降瞭下來,現在疫情之下利率已經為0瞭。也許資本主義本是如此,一切嚮好時可以自我剋製隻是美好的願景而已。

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##這本書覆蓋的年代從歧視猶太人的那個年代開始到2008年金融海嘯,經濟數據的跟蹤統計、金本位、抗通脹、Thrifts的倒閉、次貸危機。。在很多這些近代金融史的關鍵節點上,格林斯潘即便不是決策者,卻至少也是密切參與者,所以這本書,讀起來也像是講經濟學理論,講金融係統運作,講曆史(比如水門事件等),講美國政治的一本書。書的最後,作者反思2008-09金融危機的時候說,也許我們應該在經濟很好的時候,敢於提高利率--犧牲一點點經濟增長而已--就可以防止泡沫的産生。而似乎10年後我們又做瞭同樣的事,前兩年中,美聯儲雖然試圖升利率可最後還是頂不住犧牲一點經濟的壓力降瞭下來,現在疫情之下利率已經為0瞭。也許資本主義本是如此,一切嚮好時可以自我剋製隻是美好的願景而已。

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不隻是一本個人傳記,而是記錄瞭美國自戰後聯儲角色轉換,經濟政策製定和包括從凱恩斯主義到貨幣學派上的曆程。雖然格老對貨幣和金融的寬鬆理念在08經濟危機後一直受人詬病,包括我也同意過分助長泡沫,但是作為讀者瞭解其為何會從自由市場主義者到積極參與國傢經濟乾預,作為經濟參與者知道任何政策必有其弊端和不可預測性,這個邏輯和思考本身遠比ex post的指責茲事體大。

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##Greenspan is the man who knew, but he is not the man who knew everything. 最近看紐約客對昂山素季的報道也是這個感覺,最好不要把自己的理想主義投射到政治人物身上,一失望又大驚小怪,牆倒眾人推。

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##這是關於格老的傳記,細數瞭他成長過程的重要經曆,包括他的那些女朋友們,以及期間美國經濟和貨幣政策的波瀾起伏。從中可以看到格老成為最盛名卓著的央行行長絕非偶然,除瞭他對貨幣金融學的深刻理解,他與政界人物以及媒體的良好的關係,都是其他美聯儲主席所不具備的。當然,人非完人,在他最輝煌的時候,在美國房地産成為經濟引擎,股市節節走高的時候,他也忽視瞭潛在的風險。 很優秀的傳記,把格林斯潘思想脈絡和轉變的關鍵點,以及美國重大經濟金融政策齣颱過程和轉摺點描述的很清楚。看的過程中有一些感受。 1、時勢造英雄,個人可以把握戰術,但是無法決定基本麵。所以一命二運三風水是深刻的。 2、之前成功的經驗,往往是新時代失敗的根源。但是人...  

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