The Fifth Risk

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Michael Lewis
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W. W. Norton & Company 2018-10-2 Hardcover 9781324002642

具体描述

Michael Lewis is the best-selling author of Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, The Blind Side, The Big Short, and The Undoing Project. He lives in Berkeley, California, with his wife and three children.

What are the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works?

"The election happened," remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the Department of Energy. "And then there was radio silence." Across all departments, similar stories were playing out: Trump appointees were few and far between; those that did show up were shockingly uninformed about the functions of their new workplace. Some even threw away the briefing books that had been prepared for them.

Michael Lewis’s brilliant narrative takes us into the engine rooms of a government under attack by its own leaders. In Agriculture the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches is being slashed. The Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly. Over at Energy, where international nuclear risk is managed, it’s not clear there will be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do.

Willful ignorance plays a role in these looming disasters. If your ambition is to maximize short-term gains without regard to the long-term cost, you are better off not knowing those costs. If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems. There is upside to ignorance, and downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview.

If there are dangerous fools in this book, there are also heroes, unsung, of course. They are the linchpins of the system―those public servants whose knowledge, dedication, and proactivity keep the machinery running. Michael Lewis finds them, and he asks them what keeps them up at night.

用户评价

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##US government is a giant organization that is misunderstood by most of Americans.

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##美国政治角力的本质,往往不是驴象之争,而是逐利和逐梦者之争。作者写到农业部的时候开始陷入了一种固定范式:高效部门被架空、优秀团队被罢黜、有益项目被取缔,Trump与Obama和Bush政权相比有诸多不妥。但是循规蹈矩其实未必稳妥,异于前任未必倒退,我反而觉得Trump团队最大的过错在于表象沟通时的傲慢和冷漠。一切问题都会透过沟通暴露,沟通不当,一切便都是问题。读完全书,最精华的论点在DOE一章最后,守序的邪恶与无知是第五类风险的本源,要比大众视野下的混乱善意可怕的多:牺牲长期利益,而试图通过program management填补短期的漏洞,这才是一个政治体制倒退的深层原因。

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##主旨是批判建国同志缺乏行政管理能力,大量篇幅是介绍美国很多政府部门都是做什么的。包括商业部,能源部,农业部… 打个岔,我国对农业数据气象数据的分析和使用,是不是还没有开始?

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##美国政治角力的本质,往往不是驴象之争,而是逐利和逐梦者之争。作者写到农业部的时候开始陷入了一种固定范式:高效部门被架空、优秀团队被罢黜、有益项目被取缔,Trump与Obama和Bush政权相比有诸多不妥。但是循规蹈矩其实未必稳妥,异于前任未必倒退,我反而觉得Trump团队最大的过错在于表象沟通时的傲慢和冷漠。一切问题都会透过沟通暴露,沟通不当,一切便都是问题。读完全书,最精华的论点在DOE一章最后,守序的邪恶与无知是第五类风险的本源,要比大众视野下的混乱善意可怕的多:牺牲长期利益,而试图通过program management填补短期的漏洞,这才是一个政治体制倒退的深层原因。

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##打書釘,又一斷斷續續三四個月的長征 Write the impact of Trump's on the U.S. government. At first glance it seems that nothing wrong.Each of his policies has far-reaching effects & at the same time weakens of the USA.The author's so-called the fifth risk refers to the mismanagement of government programs.Take the entire USA into very dangerous & uncharted territory

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##跟风读这么政治的书(川帝无意之中把我变成了political junkie), 最大的收获就是发现美帝行政部门好多“名不符实”,比如能源部不关心本国电力系统而忙于追踪世界核原料的来龙去脉;农业部很大部分经费用于发放免费午餐,另外负责把机场附近的加拿大鹅轰走;最绝的是商业部不可以和business打交道,而是负责收集各种数据,所以气象局归商业部管。这本书主题倒川,不过读下来感觉更像是为政府职员歌功颂德。

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##有点散的流水账,中心思想不过是it's the risks that we fail to imagine that get us killed,扯上特朗普岂不是格局小了?

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