"Ray Dalio's excellent study provides an innovative way of thinking about debt crises and the policy response." - Ben Bernanke
"Ray Dalio's book is must reading for anyone who aspires to prevent or manage through the next financial crisis." - Larry Summers
"A terrific piece of work from one of the world's top investors who has devoted his life to understanding markets and demonstrated that understanding by navigating the 2008 financial crisis well." - Hank Paulson
"An outstanding history of financial crises, including the devastating crisis of 2008, with a very valuable framework for understanding why the engine of the financial system occasionally breaks down, and what types of policy actions by central banks and governments are necessary to resolve systemic financial crises. This should serve as a play book for future policy makers, with practical guidance about what to do and what not to do." - Tim Geithner
On the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, one of the world's most successful investors, Ray Dalio, shares his unique template for how debt crises work and principles for dealing with them well. This template allowed his firm, Bridgewater Associates, to anticipate events and navigate them well while others struggled badly.
As he explained in his #1 New York Times Bestseller, Principles: Life & Work, Dalio believes that most everything happens over and over again through time so that by studying their patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind them and develop principles for dealing with them well. In this 3-part research series, he does that for big debt crises and shares his template in the hopes reducing the chances of big debt crises happening and helping them be better managed in the future.
The template comes in three parts provided in three books: 1) The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle (which explains the template), 2) 3 Detailed Cases (which examines in depth the 2008 financial crisis, the 1930's Great Depression, and the 1920's inflationary depression of Germany's Weimar Republic), and 3) Compendium of 48 Cases (which is a compendium of charts and brief descriptions of the worst debt crises of the last 100 years). Whether you're an investor, a policy maker, or are simply interested, the unconventional perspective of one of the few people who navigated the crises successfully, A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises will help you understand the economy and markets in revealing new ways.
##應該是我第一本完整看完的英文版經濟學書。之前沒有經濟學基礎,經濟學方麵的詞匯量也不夠,還是挺吃力的,很多術語隻能查 wiki 或 investopedia,前前後後花瞭有半年時間,總得來說覺得值。最重要的是 Dalio 提供瞭三次金融危機的非常詳細的描述,還有精確到天的報紙的摘要,簡直可以每天看一部分然後像真實體驗過一樣。之後看類似危機分析的書可以拿來做對照。
評分##先讀為敬
評分通過對曆史上債務危機的研究,Ray Dalio和橋水分享瞭理解債務危機運行的模闆。書中將債務危機分為兩大類:通縮型債務危機(本幣計價債務)和通脹型債務危機(外幣計價債務,不容易化解),而減債/去杠杆的措施Ray在之前提過很多次,分彆是緊縮、債務違約/重組、QE和印鈔票、財富轉移再分配(這一條是新增加的),如果政策製定者能夠快速反應並運用好手中工具,能夠實現化解債務危機。其中對魏瑪德國惡性通脹、大蕭條和次貸危機進行瞭非常詳細的解讀,可以感覺齣來Ray對次貸危機後美聯儲和財政部的應對措施極其欣賞。附錄介紹的宏觀審慎政策工具,本質就是指導信貸局部調整,其中一條Changing accounting rules on different assets,這就是20天前人民銀行重啓的“逆周期因子”吧。。
評分##Type of books only Dalio can write
評分##魏瑪共和國和29年大蕭條的例子非常清晰。學瞭這麼多年二戰史,竟然是看瞭dalio的書之後纔終於明白瞭一直不明白的事。算是一個意外的收獲。在理論方麵,dalio的模型其實沒有什麼特殊的。隻是更量化統一的說明瞭,在危機時放水時必須的,貨幣貶值是必須的。其他的道德和政治爭議,比如放水是不是便宜瞭黑心資本傢,比如說是不是要給政府或銀行一個教訓,這些爭論都要往後放。因為在當下,這些因素都隻會讓經濟每況愈下,無法迴復。但他整理的曆史也側麵說明瞭,在真實世界裏,做“正確的放水決定”是很睏難的,政策執行人常常會反復,所以一旦進入危機周期,每一次不徹底的政策帶來的部分反彈,都難掩整體的下行趨勢。
評分##Type of books only Dalio can write
評分##Simply the best hypothesis, and proven.
評分##先讀為敬
評分##Simply the best hypothesis, and proven.
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