編輯推薦
上冊:
三位作者都是著名的經濟學傢。本書是美國許多知名大學的教材,它深刻洞悉瞭國際貿易和國際金融領域的新變化和爭議,在內容安排上既包含國際經濟學的新進展,又重視長期以來作為學科核心的傳統理論與見解。
內容簡介
本書配有大量的案例、專欄和圖錶,注重理論在實踐中的應用。作者以其多年來對國際經濟學的研究和實踐經驗,係統介紹瞭國際貿易理論和政策、國際收支平衡、匯率決定和國際宏觀經濟政策的新研究成果,是一本不可多得的國際經濟學教材。本書分上下兩冊,上冊是國際貿易部分(第2~12章),下冊是國際金融部分(第13~22章),兩部分自成體係,因此,授課老師可以根據課時需要自行安排授課。
作者簡介
保羅·R. 剋魯格曼,普林斯頓大學教授,2008年諾貝爾經濟學奬獲得者,目前還擔任許多國傢和地區的經濟政策谘詢顧問。他的主要研究領域包括國際貿易、國際金融、貨幣危機與匯率變化理論,被譽為當今世界上令人矚目的貿易理論傢之一。
目錄
Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323
13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323
14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
350
384
414
451
An Asset Approach
15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493
Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy 534
534
587
616
19 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview
20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience
21 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis
22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 649
Mathematical Postscripts
Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification 691
Credits 698
Index 699
viii
ix
Contents
Preface xvi
Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323
13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323
The National Income Accounts325
National Product and National Income326
Capital Depreciation and International Transfers327
Gross Domestic Product327
National Income Accounting for an Open Economy328
Consumption328
Investment328
Government Purchases329
The National Income Identity for an Open Economy329
An Imaginary Open Economy329
The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness330
Saving and the Current Account332
Private and Government Saving333
CASE STUDY: Government Deficit Reduction May Not Increase
the Current Account Surplus334
The Balance of Payments Accounts336
Examples of Paired Transactions337
The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity338
The Current Account, Once Again339
The Capital Account340
The Financial Account340
Net Errors and Omissions341
Official Reserve Transactions342
CASE STUDY: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor343
Summary346
14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 350
Exchange Rates and International Transactions351
Domestic and Foreign Prices351
Exchange Rates and Relative Prices353
The Foreign Exchange Market354
The Actors354
Characteristics of the Market355
Spot Rates and Forward Rates356
Foreign Exchange Swaps358
Futures and Options358
The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets358
Assets and Asset Returns359
BOX: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia360
Risk and Liquidity362
Interest Rates362
Exchange Rates and Asset Returns364
A Simple Rule364
Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market366
Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market367
Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition367
How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns368
The Equilibrium Exchange Rate369
Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium371
The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate372
The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate373
x Contents
CASE STUDY: What Explains the Carry Trade?374
Summary376
Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered
Interest Parity381
384
Money Defined: A Brief Review385
Money as a Medium of Exchange385
Money as a Unit of Account385
Money as a Store of Value386
What Is Money?386
How the Money Supply Is Determined386
The Demand for Money by Individuals387
Expected Return387
Risk388
Liquidity388
Aggregate Money Demand388
The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money
Supply and Demand390
Equilibrium in the Money Market390
Interest Rates and the Money Supply392
Output and the Interest Rate393
The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run393
Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate394
U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate395
Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate396
Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run398
Money and Money Prices399
The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes399
Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels400
Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run401
Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics402
Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility402
BOX: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Bolivia404
Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate404
Exchange Rate Overshooting407
CASE STUDY: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation?
The Implications of Inflation Targeting408
Summary411
414
The Law of One Price415
Purchasing Power Parity416
The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One Price416
Absolute PPP and Relative PPP417
A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP418
The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach418
15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP420
The Fisher Effect421
Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price424
Explaining the Problems with PPP425
Trade Barriers and Nontradables426
Departures from Free Competition427
Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement427
Contents xi
BOX: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price428
PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run430
CASE STUDY: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries431
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run
Exchange Rates433
The Real Exchange Rate434
Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate435
BOX: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence
from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops436
Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium438
International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate440
Real Interest Parity442
Summary443
Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate
Under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach448
17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 451
Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy452
Determinants of Consumption Demand452
Determinants of the Current Account453
How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account454
How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account454
The Equation of Aggregate Demand455
The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand455
Real Income and Aggregate Demand455
How Output Is Determined in the Short Run456
Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule458
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium458
Deriving the DD Schedule459
Factors That Shift the DD Schedule459
Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule462
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium462
Deriving the AA Schedule464
Factors That Shift the AA Schedule464
Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA
Schedules Together465
Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy467
Monetary Policy468
Fiscal Policy468
Policies to Maintain Full Employment469
Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation471
Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy472
A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472
Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472
A Permanent Fiscal Expansion474
xii Contents
Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account476
Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics477
The J-Curve477
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation479
BOX: Exchange Rates and the Current Account480
The Liquidity Trap481
Summary484
Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand488
Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical
Estimates of Trade Elasticities490
18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493
Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?494
Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply495
The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply495
Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply497
Sterilization497
The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply498
How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate499
Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate499
Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate500
A Diagrammatic Analysis501
Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate502
Monetary Policy502
Fiscal Policy503
Changes in the Exchange Rate504
Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes506
Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight506
Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention509
Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention509
BOX: Brazil’s 1998–1999 Balance of Payments Crisis510
《國際經濟學:理論與政策》下冊:國際金融 全球視角下的金融理論與現實 本書作為《國際經濟學:理論與政策》的下冊,深入剖析瞭國際金融領域的關鍵理論、模型與現實應用。它旨在為讀者提供一個全麵而深入的視角,理解在日益全球化的世界經濟中,貨幣、資本與金融市場的互動規律,以及各國政策在其中扮演的角色。本書內容紮實,邏輯清晰,力求將抽象的理論與生動的現實案例相結閤,幫助讀者構建堅實的國際金融知識體係。 核心內容概覽: 1. 國際收支理論與實務: 收支平衡錶: 詳細介紹國際收支平衡錶的構成、記賬方法以及其在衡量國傢經濟交易中的重要性。我們將探討經常賬戶、資本賬戶、金融賬戶和儲備資産賬戶之間的關係,並分析影響這些賬戶的因素,如貿易政策、匯率變動、資本流動和國際援助。 收支失衡的分析與應對: 深入分析國際收支失衡的原因,包括結構性失衡、周期性失衡和貨幣性失衡。本書將重點探討不同類型的失衡對國傢經濟穩定和國際地位的影響,並係統介紹和評價各種宏觀經濟政策手段,如財政政策、貨幣政策和匯率政策,用以糾正和管理國際收支失衡。 2. 匯率理論與決定機製: 購買力平價理論(PPP): 闡述絕對購買力平價和相對購買力平價的理論基礎,分析其在不同市場條件下的適用性和局限性。我們將考察實際數據如何檢驗PPP理論,並探討其在預測長期匯率變動中的作用。 利率平價理論(IP): 深入講解無拋補利率平價和拋補利率平價,分析它們如何解釋短期匯率的變動。本書將重點討論套利活動在維持利率平價中的作用,以及資本自由流動和交易成本對利率平價的影響。 資産組閤平衡理論(Portfolio Balance Theory): 介紹該理論如何解釋投資者在不同風險和收益特徵的資産(包括本國和外國資産)之間進行選擇,以及這種選擇如何影響匯率。我們將分析資産的替代性、風險溢價以及投資者預期的重要性。 匯率超調模型(Overshooting Model): 闡述貨幣主義關於匯率在短期內可能大幅波動(超調)的觀點,並分析其背後的貨幣政策與資産市場互動機製。我們將探討匯率超調對經濟穩定和政策製定的影響。 理性預期在匯率決定中的作用: 探討市場參與者如何利用所有可用信息形成對未來匯率的預期,以及這種預期如何即時影響當前的匯率水平。 3. 匯率製度與管理: 匯率製度的分類與演變: 全麵介紹固定匯率製、浮動匯率製以及介於兩者之間的各種中間匯率製度,如管理浮動、爬行釘住等。本書將迴顧國際匯率製度的曆史演變,從布雷頓森林體係的崩潰到當前的多元化體係。 不同匯率製度的優劣分析: 詳細比較不同匯率製度在穩定經濟、促進貿易、吸引投資以及維持貨幣政策獨立性方麵的利弊。我們將重點分析固定匯率製下的貨幣政策約束與自由浮動匯率製下的匯率波動風險。 國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的角色: 探討IMF在維護國際貨幣體係穩定、監督成員國匯率政策、提供短期和長期金融援助方麵的作用。我們將分析IMF的貸款機製、結構性調整計劃以及其在解決國際金融危機中的作用。 4. 國際資本流動與金融市場: 資本流動的類型與驅動因素: 區分直接投資(FDI)、證券投資(Portfolio Investment)和債務融資等不同類型的資本流動,並深入分析吸引或阻止資本流動的經濟因素,如利率差異、經濟增長前景、政治穩定性、製度環境以及稅收政策。 資本流動的經濟影響: 詳細探討資本流入和流齣對東道國和來源國的宏觀經濟影響,包括對匯率、利率、通貨膨脹、經濟增長、資産價格以及金融穩定的影響。我們將分析資本流動可能帶來的好處,如技術轉移、促進競爭和降低融資成本,以及潛在的風險,如金融脆弱性、資産泡沫和貨幣危機。 金融市場一體化與全球化: 分析全球金融市場的日益一體化趨勢,以及這種趨勢對各國金融監管、風險管理和宏觀經濟政策的影響。我們將探討跨境金融交易的便利化、國際金融機構的作用以及全球金融監管協調的挑戰。 5. 國際金融市場結構與運行: 外匯市場: 深入介紹外匯市場的結構、交易參與者、交易方式以及影響匯率短期變動的即期和遠期交易。我們將探討金融衍生工具(如外匯期權、遠期閤約、掉期)在外匯風險管理中的作用。 國際債券市場與股票市場: 分析跨國公司和政府如何通過發行國際債券和股票來籌集資金,以及這些市場的運作機製和風險。我們將探討歐洲債券、美國存托憑證(ADRs)等概念。 國際銀行與金融機構: 介紹國際銀行業的發展、功能以及其在全球金融體係中的地位。我們將分析國際金融監管的挑戰,以及巴塞爾協議等國際監管框架的演變。 6. 國際金融危機與風險管理: 金融危機的類型與成因: 剖析不同類型的國際金融危機,如貨幣危機、債務危機和銀行危機,並深入探討其內在和外在的成因,包括過度藉貸、資産泡沫、政策失誤、外部衝擊和傳染效應。 危機發生的傳導機製: 詳細分析金融危機如何在國際間傳播,包括直接傳染(如銀行間聯係)和間接傳染(如市場信心崩潰、流動性緊縮)。 危機管理與防範: 係統介紹各國和國際組織在應對金融危機中所采取的政策措施,如IMF的救助計劃、貨幣貶值、資本管製、金融體係改革和國際金融監管閤作。本書將討論如何從曆史經驗中吸取教訓,構建更具韌性的國際金融體係。 學習目標: 通過學習本書,讀者將能夠: 理解國際收支的構成及其對國傢經濟的影響。 掌握各種匯率決定理論,並能分析實際匯率變動的原因。 評估不同匯率製度的優缺點,並理解其對宏觀經濟政策的影響。 分析國際資本流動的驅動因素、模式及其對經濟的廣泛影響。 熟悉國際金融市場的結構和運作,以及參與其中的主要機構。 識彆國際金融危機的潛在原因、傳導機製,並瞭解應對和防範策略。 培養從全球視角分析國際經濟金融問題的能力。 本書適閤經濟學、金融學、國際關係學等專業的本科生、研究生,以及對國際經濟金融問題感興趣的專業人士閱讀。通過理論學習與案例分析的結閤,讀者將能夠深刻理解全球經濟一體化背景下,國際金融流動與政策互動所帶來的挑戰與機遇。